Comparative & Quantitative Analysis

Statistics don't lie, but don't reveal the whole story
either. I had mentioned previously that I am behind
in my cycling mileage, and fitness level compared to
last year. So, I went over my charts to analyize the
specifics. Here are some interesting statistics and
hard numbers, if your into this sort of thing.

In 2006, when comparing distance up until May 8 this
year; I had 573.40 total road miles in ‘06. Versus
May 8, 2007, I have accumulated 268.95 road miles.
A negative of 304.45, miles or 53% Less in ’07.

2007 –Rides/Apr 1–May 8	Mileage	Avg Speed
7 Rides in total	187.61	15.73
2006 –Rides/Apr 1–May 8	Mileage	Avg Speed
12 Rides in total	353.30	14.36
2007 Mileage Q1-May 8,	268.95	15.35
2006Mileage Q1-May 8,	573.40	14.32

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If I go a step further and break it down by average weekly
miles, the distance was 37.58 average miles per week from
Apr 1 - May 8, 2007.

Versus 87.58 average miles ridden per week in ’06 which
is a whopping 57% decrease in mileage in ’07 from ’06.

Comparing only April and May only also reveals some
interesting stats. Which also back up and validate Q1
performance.

Percentage Variances

2007-Rides Apr1–May 8	Amount	Avg Speed
	7	15.73
2006-Rides Apr1–May 8	Amount	Avg Speed
	12	14.36
# Rides/differential	Delta	% Delta
2007	-5 or -41.67%	+8.71 %

To me, these statistical facts are somewhat of a revelation.
I have ridden 5 times Less, than in the exact same time
period as 2006, yet my average speed is up 1.37 miles per
hour or plus 8.71%.

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Here are two more charts plotting the miles and speed to date:

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Given that both 2006 and 2007 ride amount delta's are relatively
low, I cannot say it is strictly because of the greater ride number,
even though the mileage is over 50% greater as well. The fact is,
it is too early in the riding season for distance, speed, and other
factors to have such an impact on the statistical numbers.

I’m not an expert but it tells me two things, the first being
that cumulative miles from the previous three years of riding
has built up a sort of “base” fitness,(cardio & endurance)
though my so-called endurance and fitness are very questionable.
 
Secondly, there is a psychological factor. Knowing that I am
lagging behind I must be pushing myself a bit harder, whereas in
2006, I took it easy, too easy perhaps, from the start, knowing
that I had a couple of months to build up the miles slowly. Ahhh,
the old mind – body connection. My reconciled conclusion is that
I really cannot forecast performance based on my 3 previous riding
years. There are too many varibles, internal and external factors to
consider and analyze. I'll just shut up now and go ride!

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